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HOUSE REDISTRICTING OUTLOOOK
For further information about the Cook Political Report, please
call 202-739-8525 or go to their website at www.cookpolitical.com

Information is current as of May15, 2001.  For most resent
information contact http://www.cookpolitical.com.

Below is a preliminary look at the process and the politics of redistricting.  For each state, we have included a breakdown of the current composition of the congressional delegation (and its corresponding percentage), as well as the aggregate congressional vote.  For example, in Alabama, the Democrats received 33.9% of the total vote in all of the congressional districts combined.  The Republicans received 59.3% of the total congressional vote. Also included are the number of seats that the state will gain or lose through reapportionment, the breakdown of party control for the state House, state Senate and Governor, details about how each state goes about the process of drawing its lines and a very preliminary outlook at the political impact of redistricting on each state.  But, it is important to remember that redistricting has yet to begin in earnest in most states and how and where districts will be drawn is purely speculative and can change drastically over the next few months.
    

A  B  C  D  E  F  G  H  I   J  K  L  M  N  O  P  Q  R  S  T   U  V  W  X  Y  Z

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
AL      2D/5R
     28.5%/71.4%
     33.9%/59.3%

0

 D/D D The legislature, made up of a 22-rep committee. The gov. has veto power
Outlook: Democrats, who control both the legislature and the Governor’s Mansion in the state, are hopeful that they can get at least one seat out of redistricting and they are enthusiastic about the fact that the state saw a slight gain in African-American population. Pre-1991 redistricting, Democrats had a five- to two-advantage in the delegation. The decision by 3rd CD Rep. Bob Riley to run for Governor in 2002 opens up a district that Democrats may try to redraw to their advantage. Still, the state, like the rest of the Deep South, continues to trend toward Republicans at the federal level and incumbent Republicans are pretty well liked and entrenched here. The fastest growing district in the state was the Birmingham suburban 6th CD held by GOP Rep. Spencer Bachus while Democrat Earl Hilliard’s majority African-American 7th district needs to pick up almost 100,000 new residents.
AZ      1D/5R
     16.6%/83.8%
     38.1%/58.3%		 +2 R/tied R Redistricting commission. The gov. does not have veto power.

Outlook: The new non-partisan five-member commission in charge of drawing the two new seats in the state hopes to have plans to submit for Justice Department review by August. Ideally, final district plans would be in place no later than the end of the year. Hispanic groups complained earlier in the year about the fact that there were no minority members on the commission. New census figures show that Hispanics make up more than 25 percent of the state’s population. The Commission responded by hiring Hispanics as its executive director and one of its two attorneys. Both sides agree that this fast-growing state will be very competitive in 2002. It will be hard for Republicans to expand on their over-inflated control of the state’s delegation--they have five of the six seats--and even Republicans insiders concede that Democrats will pick up at least one of the two seats.
AR      3D/1R
     75%/25%
     56.2%/43.8%		 0 D/D R The legislature. The gov. has veto power but can be overridden by a majority vote in the legislature.

Outlook: In mid-April the Democratic-controlled legislature approved a redistricting plan that is likely to become law and that does not make much significant change to the state’s four congressional districts. The heavily GOP 3rd CD, the fastest growing district in the state, needs to shed about 10,000 residents. As such, the new plan moves Baxter County (in the far northern part of the state) from the 3rd to Democrat Marion Berry’s 1st CD and three counties in the southern part of the 3rd CD (Logan, Polk and Scott) from the 3rd to Democrat Mike Ross’s 4th CD. Some GOPers in the state have threatened to file a lawsuit against the new plan saying that the population difference of 6,698 people between the 3rd and 2nd CDs is too large. A 1990 plan that had a population difference of more than 4,000 residents withstood a court challenge. Still, there does not seem to be a groundswell of opposition to the plan.

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
CA      31D/20R
      (1vacant- D)
      60.8%/39.2%
      51.8%/42.6%

+1

 D/D D The legislature. The gov. has veto power
Outlook: Democrats control the process here for the first time in 20 years. But don’t look for a repeat of 1981 when, under the direction of the late Rep. Phil Burton, Democrats heavily gerrymandered the state to create a decidedly lopsided delegation (28 Democrats to 17 Republicans). This year, both sides agree that while Democrats have opportunities for small gains, it will not be a blowout. Democrats, who picked off four GOP seats in the 2000 election, have fewer places to go today to pick up seats and must protect their newly elected members such as Reps. Jane Harman and Susan Davis. Realistically, the likely scenario is a two-seat pick up for Democrats. GOP Reps. Doug Ose (CA-03) and Steve Horn (CA-38) are most vulnerable to Democratic line drawing. Heavy growth in the Latino population and state legislators faced with term limits (the first time this has been the case) could mean primary contests for once safe Democratic members in heavily minority areas, especially in and around Los Angeles. Also, look for the state’s new seat to be centered in the fast-growing San Bernardino/Riverside area. The legislature will start the line drawing process this summer during a special session.
CO      2D/4R
     33.3%/66.7%
     30.6%/59.7%		 +1 R/D R The legislature. The gov. has veto power

Outlook: Heavy growth in the suburbs surrounding Denver helped the state pick up a new seat. This new suburban district is likely to be a swing seat that could be hotly contested in the 2002 election.

CT      3D/3R
     50%/50%
     53.2%/45.8%		 -1 D/D R A bi-partisan Reapportionment committee of eight legislators. 2/3 majority vote in each chamber is required. The gov. does not have veto power.

Outlook: Whenever a small state loses a congressional seat, the rest of the state feels the repercussions. Democrat Jim Maloney’s 5th CD, the most marginal seat in the state, stands out as the biggest target. Tucked into the middle of the state, the 5th has no major city to anchor it, and could be parceled into the three surrounding districts (the Democratic 3rd and GOP 4th and 6th). Another widely discussed option is to combine the 5th with GOP Rep. Nancy Johnson’s 6th CD. But Democrats also have their eye on the 2nd district where they’d like to make freshman GOP Rep. Rob Simmons, already a top target, even more vulnerable. One redistricting scenario has this sprawling 54-town district chopped in half with the northern half of the district getting swallowed up into the Hartford-based 1st CD held by Democrat John Larson and the shoreline area ceded to the New Haven-based 3rd district held by Democrat Rosa DeLauro. But, one insider says that scenario is unlikely since neither Larson nor DeLauro is interested in that plan. An eight-member committee made up of four Democrats and four Republicans will draw the lines. The legislature needs to approve the lines by two-thirds vote by September 15. If the legislature does not pass the plan, an impartial ninth member will be added to the commission to broker a compromise by the end of November.

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
FL      8D/15R
      34.8%/65.2%
      39.5%/56.9%

+2

 R/R R The legislature. The gov. has veto power
Outlook: There is little question that the political wrangling we saw in the state during the recount process last November will be repeated during the redraw. Republicans control the legislature and the Governor’s Mansion, but Democrats are counting on the Democratic-leaning state Supreme Court (remember them?) to prevent heavy-handed GOP line drawing. Central and South Florida grew the fastest. In South Florida, House Reapportionment Chairman Mario Diaz-Balart (brother of Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart) is talking about creating another Cuban-based CD in which he would run. But, while the state’s Hispanic population grew in the last decade, Cubans are not the only group fueling the Hispanic population boom. Other GOP leaders like House Speaker Tom Feeney, state Sen. Jim Horne, and Senate President Pro Temp. Ginny Brown-Waite, are hoping to make some changes in Central Florida where they could run. But, with Republicans already controlling the majority of the seats in the state, there are only so many more places that Republicans can go to pick up new seats without jeopardizing some already marginal districts they hold today.

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
GA      3D/8R
      27.3%/72.7%
      38%/62%

+2

 D/D D The legislature. The gov. has veto power
Outlook: Today, as in 1991, Democrats control the redistricting process. But, in 1991, Democratic hubris (the desire to wipe Rep. Newt Gingrich out of a district resulted in two new GOP seats), the heavy enforcement of the Voting Rights Act (which created three majority-minority districts and essentially wiped out white Democratic members in the state), and a raft of Democratic retirements, combined to turn this former Democratic stronghold into one dominated by Republicans. Democrats argue that this year they can finally turn around their dwindling fortunes in the Peach State and produce a map where Democrats have at least five seats to the Republicans’ eight. At this point, Democrats are reportedly targeting the districts held by GOP Reps. Bob Barr (7th CD) and Charlie Norwood (10th CD). State Sen. Majority Leader Larry Walker is reportedly eyeing new lines in the Augusta-based 10th CD to help him in a race against Norwood. It is not yet clear where the two new seats would be located but it is likely that both will be centered in and around fast growing metro suburban Atlanta and north Georgia.

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
HI      2D
      100%
      65(D)%/32.6%(R)

0

 D/D D A nine-member reapportionment commission made up of two members appointed by the president of the Senate, two appointed by the speaker, two by the minority party in each house.  Those eight members choose the ninth.   The gov. does not have veto power.
Outlook: With no drastic population shifts and a non-partisan commission drawins the lines in the state, no significan change is expected in the lines here.  The Honolulu-based 1st district was the slower growing of th two districtc and will need to pick-up about 40,000 residents.

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
ID      2R
      100%
      28.9%(D)/67.5%(R)

0

 R/R R A six-member reapportionment commission. The gov. does not have veto power
Outlook: Rapid growth in the counties surrounding Boise (Canton and Ads) and in the panhandle around Coeur d'Alene helped boost the 1st CD's population to 700,000 people, giving the 1st CD 100,000 more people the the western 2nd CD.  This means that the 1st CD will have to shed about 50,000 residents leading some to speculate that the 2nd district will pick up almost all the Boise (Boise currently split between the 1st and 2nd).  Still, it is unlikely that these line changes will have any impact on the political safety of GOP incumbent Reps. Butch Otter (1st) or Mike Simpson (2nd).
IL      10D/10R
     50%/50%
     55.9%/43.4%		 -1 D/R R The legislature. The gov. has veto power

Outlook: Over the last 30 years, Illinois has lost five seats, including two in the 1991 redraw. This year, the state is again losing a seat. While the population in the suburbs around Chicago has been booming (Will County, south of Chicago has grown 40 percent), Cook County (Chicago) and the Downstate counties are the slowest growing. Earlier in the year, there were rumblings that Rep. Rod Blagojevich’s North Side Chicago district (5th CD) would be eliminated; his public flirting with a gubernatorial bid certainly would makes it easier for mapmakers to do this. But, the fact Chicago has not lost population for the first time since the 1950s gives Chicago-based politicians ammunition to argue for the loss of a seat from Downstate. And, in the end, it looks like Downstate got the short end of the stick. In a bi-partisan deal cut by House Speaker Dennis Hastert and Democratic Rep. Bill Lipinski, the 19th CD represented by sophomore Democrat David Phelps will be chopped up and parceled into three other districts: the 12th (held by Democrat Jerry Costello), the 20th (held by Republican John Shimkus) and the 15th CD represented by freshman Republican Tim Johnson. Phelps’ home would be in the newly merged 19th/15th CD, but, the newly merged district would have a serious GOP edge. One Democrat suggested that Phelps, a conservative Blue Dog Democrat, could move to the newly drawn Shimkus seat where the Democratic performance will be a bit better. Still, Phelps has never had to run a tough race, and the low profile Congressman had just $239,000 in the bank at the end of the year compared to Shimkus’ $400,000.

IN      4D/6R
     40%/60%
     44.2%/52.9%		 -1 D/R D Thelegislature.  The gov. has veto power.   If the legislature and gov. can't agree on lines, the plan goes to a five member   committee where to a five-member  committee where Dems have the controlling vote.

Outlook: On April 9, the Democratic-controlled House redistricting committee released its proposed congressional map. Since the legislature was unable to agree on a congressional plan, the House-drawn plan will now be put in front of a five-member commission for approval. But, with Democrats controlling three of the five seats, even Republicans acknowledge that the Democratic House redistricting plan will be implemented. That plan merges the districts of GOP Reps. Brian Kerns (7th CD) and Steve Buyer (5th CD) into one central Indiana district that will be called the 4th district. The state was required to lose one district. Both incumbents have said publicly that they are planning on running for the new district. National Republicans, upset at the idea of losing a GOP incumbent in a primary, have suggested that Buyer move to the newly created 2nd CD where Democrat Tim Roemer will be retiring and where some of his old 5th district is located. But Buyer publicly balked at the suggestion, saying that his home is in the 4th CD. Kerns’ home base of Vigo County is not in the 4th CD (it is now in the 8th CD), but seven of his former district’s 12 counties are located in the new 4th CD. And, Kerns’ father-in-law is former 30-yearcentral Indiana Rep. John Meyers, a political legend in this part of the state.

Besides pushing Kerns and Buyer together, the new map does not make too many dramatic changes. Democrat Baron Hill was shored up in his southeastern district with the addition of Democratic-leaning Bloomington (formerly of the 8th CD) and the subtraction of some of the more GOP-leaning Cincinnati suburban counties in the northern part of his district. Still, the 9th CD will always be rather marginal. Some Democrats argue that the newly drawn 8th CD, held now by GOP Rep. John Hostettler, will be more promising for Democrats, especially if conservative Democratic House Speaker John Gregg decides to run. Still, Hostettler has held onto the Bloody Eighth for through three difficult re-election bids and has proven to be a tough competitor.

IA      1D/4R
     20%/80%
     41.7%/56.2%		 0 R/R D The non-partisian Legislative Services Bureau draws lines which the legislature has to approve.  The gov. can veto

Iowa: On May 2 the GOP-controlled state Senate, citing what it said were population variances that were too great among the congressional and legislative districts, voted down the map drawn by the non-partisan Legislative Service Bureau. The population deviation is higher than redistricting plans approved in 1981 and 1991, but politics not population variation was the main reason for rejecting the plan. No Democrat voted against the plan, while all but one Republican voted no. The map paired 50 state representative and 20 state senators into member vs. member races, the bulk of whom were Republicans. And, one Republican insider noted that Republicans in the legislature would actually lose seats under this map. Although the state is not gaining or losing any seats, the first map made major changes to every congressional district in the state. The most significant change was the redrawing of the eastern Iowa districts that put current GOP Reps. Jim Leach (1st CD) and Jim Nussle (2nd CD) in the same district. The former 5th CD was also pushed further west, leaving current 5th CD GOP Rep. Tom Latham in another district as well. The only Democrat in the delegation, 3rd CD Rep. Leonard Boswell, was boosted by the addition of Democratic-leaning Johnson county (home of Iowa State University) to his southern Iowa district. With the first map voted down, the Legislative Service Bureau will now go back to the drawing board and draw a new map that is likely to be presented to lawmakers in June. The legislature once again can only vote for or against the second map. A Republican with knowledge of Iowa politics says that it is likely that the second map will be worse for the GOP delegation than the first map. If the legislature rejects the second plan, the LSB will draw another map that the GOP-controlled legislature can amend. But, Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack has the power to veto this plan, leading some in the state to suggest that the new lines will be drawn by the state Supreme Court. Since 1981, the first time the LSB was delegated the task of redistricting, the process has not gone that far. In 1981, legislators voted down the two versions drawn by the LSB and then drew the map themselves. In 1991, legislators accepted the first map presented to them.

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
KS      1D/3R
      25%/75%
      31.7%/63.3%

0

 R/R R The legislature. The gov. has veto power
Outlook: In a state where Republicans control the redistricting process and where the party has a three to one advantage in the congressional delegation, it’s not hard to guess where GOP line drawers will be focused in 2001; sophomore Democrat Dennis Moore’s suburban Kansas City’s 3rd CD. One insider says that line drawers may parcel out parts of Douglas County into GOP Rep. Jim Ryun’s 2nd CD and parts of Leavenworth County (now in the 2nd CD) will be put into the 3rd district to make the 3rd district more marginal. But, one Democrat warns that this plan could also make Ryun’s GOP-leaning district a little softer as well. Still, in a state so heavily Republican, the mapmakers have a lot of flexibility in their shuffle.
KY      1D/5R
     16.7%/83.3%
     39.1%/57.5%		 0 D/R D The legislature. The gov. has veto power

Outlook: For the first time in 30 years, control of the redistricting process will not be solely in the hands of Democrats. Although Democrats control the state House and the Governor’s office, Republicans, for the first time in history, have control of the state Senate, albeit by a scant two-seat margin. At this point, insiders don’t see much change to the state’s six districts. GOP Rep. Anne Northup’s Jefferson County 3rd CD is the slowest growing in the state. Though Democrats have had their sites on this Democratic-leaning district for years, the prospects for the 3rd to get any more Democratic after the redraw is murky. Some insiders in the state suggest that the district may be forced to move northeastward to take in GOP-leaning Oldham County from the 4th CD.

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
LA      2D/5R
      28.6%/71.4%
      28.4%/62.2%

0

 D/D R The legislature. The gov. has veto power, takes 2/3 vote to overturn veto.
Outlook: Unlike 1991, when the Voting Rights Act and the loss of a congressional district turned the Pelican State into a veritable free for all, redistricting this year will be much less volatile. Insiders say that redistricting is not likely to impact any sitting incumbent, but with 5th CD GOP Rep. John Cooksey leaving the House to run for the Senate, map makers in the state may carve it up enough to make it more viable for the Democrats. The slowest growing CDs in the state are the 2nd (Jefferson), the 4th (McCrery) and the 5th (Cooksey). Districts that have grown the fastest--and will need to lose population--are the 1st (Vitter), 6th (Baker) and 7th (John).

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
ME      2D
      100%
      66.2%(D)/31.9%(R)

0

 D/Tied I An Apportionment Commisssion submits plan to legislature.  The gov. has veto power. six-member reapportionment commission.
Oulook: There has been little change to the lines here since 1960 when Maine lost its third district. Plus, Maine does not redraw either its legislative or congressional districts until after the 2002 elections. Even so, few changes are expected for 2004. The talk today is that Knox County (Rockport/Camden) would be moved from the 1st to the 2nd CD.
MD      4D/4R
     50%/50%
     55.1%/44.5%		 0 D/D D The legislature. The gov. has veto power

Outlook: Democrats, who control the redistricting process for the state, are enthusiastic about beefing up their presence in a delegation that is currently split four Democrats to four Republicans. Democrats have the districts held by GOP Reps. Connie Morella (whose Montgomery County based 8th district is already heavily Democratic) and Bob Ehrlich (representing the Baltimore suburbs in the 2nd CD) in their sites and expect to see a delegation in 2002 that has six Democrats to two Republicans. Whether that can truly happen is another story entirely.
MA      10D/
     100%
     84.3%/14.7%		 0 D/D R The legislature. The gov. has veto power, takes 2/3 vote to overturn.

Outlook: For the first time in 20 years, the Bay State is not losing a district, but in this compact state, even minor line changes could have an impact. For example, in what is shaping up to be a crowded race to replace retiring Rep. Joe Moakley in the heavily Democratic South Boston-based 9th CD, a few line changes could have a big impact on which candidates decide to run. Still, it is unlikely that there will be major changes to the delegation post redistricting. The slowest growing CDs are in the west – Rep. John Olver’s 1st CD and Rep. Richard Neal’s 2nd CD. The Cape Cod and Eastern Mass. 10th CD held by Rep. William Delahunt was the fastest growing.
MI      9D/7R
     56.3%/43.8%
     53.5%/43.9%		 -1 R/R R The legislature. The gov. has veto power.

Outlook: Republicans have complete control of the process for the first time in 30 years and even Democrats admit they will lose at least one seat in redistricting. Priorities for Republicans include shoring up GOP Rep. Mike Rogers in the marginal 8th CD and taking out Democratic Whip David Bonior (10th CD), who is likely to vacate the seat to run for Governor. GOP Secretary of State Candace Miller has already indicated an interest in running for the 10th CD. But other Democrats such as Reps. Sander Levin (12th CD), Lynn Rivers (13th CD) and John Dingell (16th CD) as well as Jim Barcia in the 5th CD could also feel the fall-out from redistricting. Even one Michigan Democrat admitted that it was realistic to think that the delegation could go from nine Democrats to seven Republicans now to six Democrats to nine Republicans in 2002. Overreaching by zealous Republicans, though, could have unintended consequences down the road for the party.

MN      5D/3R
     62.5%/37.5%
     52.2%/42%		 0 R/D I The legislature. The gov. has veto power.

Outlook: Insiders don’t expect much change to Minnesota’s lines. Democratic Rep. Bill Luther’s suburban Twin Cities 6th district is the fastest growing and most overpopulated in the state. How those approximately 100,000 extra people get parceled out in other districts will determine just what the new 6th CD and surrounding areas will look like. Split control of the legislature and an Independent Governor means that one party will not be able to ram a map down the other party’s throat.
MS      3D/2R
     60%/40%
     50.3%/47.5%		 -1 D/D D The legislature. The gov. has veto power.

Outlook: As the slowest growing state in the Deep South, Mississippi will lose one of its five districts. At this point, the most talked about scenario has GOP Rep. Chip Pickering’s 3rd CD and Democratic Rep. Ronnie Shows’ 4th CD merged into one large central Mississippi district, though there has also been talk of putting Pickering and 1st CD Rep. Roger Wicker together. Democrats control the process in the state and will certainly try to draw a district favorably for Shows. Republicans say where GOP-leaning Rankin County (suburban Jackson) ends up will determine just how competitive Republicans can be in a combined 3rd and 4th district. And, Republicans argue that retrogression (Voting Rights Act) issues could prevent Democrats from taking too many African-Americans from the nearby 2nd district represented by Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson. But, African-American growth in both the 2nd and 4th districts (the 4th actually increased by six percent) gives Democrats hope that they can in fact draw a new district with a serious African-American base.

MO      4D/5R
     44.4%/55.6%
     48.8%/48.8%		 0 D/R D The legislature. The gov. has veto power.

Outlook: The redistricting process in well under way in the state with the goal of completing the line drawing before the legislative session ends on May 18. But, at this point, the Democratic-controlled House and GOP-controlled state Senate are at loggerheads over the shape of four St. Louis-based districts. The St. Louis city-based 1st CD, held by Democrat Lacy Clay was the slowest growing in the state (and needed to pick up more than 100,000 residents). In late April Clay and his neighbor to the south, Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, devised a plan that helped Clay retain a majority African-American district while Gephardt’s district also stayed relatively safe. But, a state Senate plan would take Gephardt out of St. Louis County all together while also keeping the 1st CD majority African American. Democratic insiders say, though, that there is little chance that Gephardt will be hurt in the redistricting process. Democratic Gov. Bob Holden has the power to veto a legislative plan. In the end, not much change is expected in the delegation.

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
NE      3R
      100%
      26.1%(D)/71.3%(R)

0

 D/R D The legislature. The gov. has veto power
Outlook: No significant changes are in store for the all-Republican delegation in Nebraska. Lee Terry’s Omaha-based 2nd CD grew the fastest and must drop about 20,000 people, while Tom Osborne’s sprawling 3rd CD was the slowest growing and needs to gain about 40,000. With the GOP controlling the process (and Bush winning the state by 29 points in 2000), it is hard to see how Democrats gain any advantage here.
NV      1D/1R
     50%/50%
     38.4%/56.5%		 +1 D/R R The legislature. The gov. has veto power

Outlook: Tremendous growth in and around Las Vegas earned Nevada a new seat. Today, talk is of a new Clark County district that would ring the city of Las Vegas. Republicans argue that they will have an edge in this suburban-based seat while Democrats claim that they will be competitive here as well. Though the outlines of the new seat are far from certain, at least two candidates have already thrown their names in the ring: Democratic Clark County Commissioner Dario Herrera and GOP state Sen. and ‘00 1st CD nominee Jon Porter.

NH      2R
     100%
     42.9%(D)/54.5%(R)		 0 R/R D The legislature. The gov. has veto power

Outlook: Nothing substantial is expected to happen to district lines in the Granite State, but with at least one of the state’s two seats potentially open next year, even a few minor line changes could impact a competitive race.
NJ      7D/6R
     53.8%/46.2%
     51.3%/46.3%		 0 R/R R An appointed 13-member Redistricting Commission. The gov. does not have veto power

Outlook: A 13-member Redistricting Commission controls redistricting in the state. Recently released numbers from the Census Bureau showed better than expected growth in majority-minority urban districts like those of Democratic Reps. Donald Payne and Bob Menendez. Minor line changes in marginal districts like Democrat Rush Holt’s 12th CD or Republican Mike Ferguson’s 7th CD could have tremendous consequences on the competitiveness of those seats in 2002. But, it is just as likely that the delegation looks much the same after redistricting as it does today.
NM      1D/2R
     33.3%/66.7%
     51%/46.6%		 0 D/D R The legislature. The gov. has veto power, takes 2/3 vote to override.

Outlook: Not much change is expected in New Mexico’s three congressional districts, but any change to GOP Rep. Heather Wilson’s already marginal 1st CD could give Wilson problems in 2002. The Santa Fe-based 3rd CD was the fastest growing in the state. The legislature will start to draw lines here in September
NY      19D/12R
     61.3%/38.7%
     54.8%/42.3%		 -2 D/R R The legislature. The gov. has veto power.

Outlook: New York has lost 12 seats since 1971. This year, the state is losing two more. Both sides agree that one seat will come from the Democrats and one seat from Republicans. Earlier, there was talk that one seat would come from New York City and the other from upstate. But, newly released numbers from the Census Bureau suggest that both seats may come from upstate, which has grown slower than any other part of the state. Regardless of which seats are altered, incumbents across the state will feel the impact.

NC      5D/7R
     41.7%/58.3%
     42.9%/54.5%		 +1 D/D D The legislature. The gov. has veto power.

Outlook: In this state, nothing is really certain. Since 1991, the lines in the state have been redrawn once and the much-litigated 12th district map was only resolved in mid-April when the Supreme Court upheld the district lines. Heavy population growth in and around Charlotte and the Research Triangle area helped the state earn another seat, but it is not yet clear where the new seat will be centered. Even though Democrats control the process in the state, both sides agree that the new district is likely to be a swing seat. But, Democrats are interested in making GOP Rep. Robin Hayes’ 8th CD, a former Democratic stronghold, fertile territory once again for Democratic candidates. .

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
OH      8D/11R
      42.1%/57.9%
      45.8%/48.8%

-1

 R/R R The legislature. The gov. has veto power
Outlook: Slated to lose one seat, it is highly likely that the GOP-controlled legislature will target a seat in the northeast part of the state. Cleveland-based Democratic Reps. Dennis Kucinich (10th) and Sherrod Brown (13th) and Akron-based Tom Sawyer (14th) are the most discussed targets. Republicans would also like to make Ted Strickland’s already marginal southern 6th CD more difficult for him in 2002. Brown has said that he will run against GOP Gov. Bob Taft in 2002 if his seat is eliminated. But, recent rumors that 22-year incumbent Tony Hall (3rd CD) may retire (one scenario has him appointed to run the Peace Corps) means that Republicans could chop up this Dayton-based seat instead. The bottom line is that Democrats will come out of redistricting at least one seat down. It is also important to note that this is the first time that legislators responsible for drawing the lines are term limited.
OK      1D/5R
     16.7%/83.3%
     31%/64.5%		 -1 D/D R The legislature. The gov. has veto power, takes 2/3 vote to overide

Outlook: With Democrats in control of the legislature and Republicans making up five of the six members of the state delegation in Congress, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that a Republican incumbent will be the victim of redistricting in the state. But, who that Republican will be is still up in the air. There has been talk of combining the districts of Reps. Ernest Istook (5th CD) and Frank Lucas (6th CD) in the panhandle/northwestern part of the state. Rep. Wes Watkins 3rd CD has also been mentioned as a potential target for Democratic line drawers. Insiders say that Watts’ district will likely remain relatively intact. Not only is Watts popular and tough to beat, but his district contains three military bases and therefore ensures that this small state keeps a seat on the Armed Services Committee. Still, redrawing the lines here will impact almost every incumbent in the state.

OR      4D/1R
     80%/20%
     55%/42.23%		 0 R/R D The legislature. The gov. has veto power

Outlook: Although Oregon is not slated to gain or lose a seat even Democrats acknowledge that the state’s four- to one-Democratic advantage is over-inflated. Republicans have been eyeing the 5th district for years and even minor changes to this CD could imperil Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley. Some Republicans argue that they will try to make Rep. David Wu’s suburban Portland 1st CD more marginal as well.

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
PA      10D/10R
       (1 vacant -R)
      50%/50%
      50%/48.9%

-2

 R/R R The legislature. The gov. has veto power
Outlook: There is no question that Democrats have problems in the Keystone State. Slated to lose two districts, the state line-drawing process is controlled completely by Republicans who have their targets set on a whole host of Democratic incumbents. Both sides agree that one seat will be lost in west and another in the east. In the west, the talk is of pushing together the Pittsburgh-based districts of Democratic Reps. Mike Doyle and Bill Coyne while helping to shore up GOP freshman Melissa Hart in the 4th CD. In the eastern part of the state, Republicans are reportedly looking to merge Democratic Reps. Tim Holden (6th CD) and Paul Kanjorski (11th CD) into one district in the northeastern part of the state. But, under one widely reported scenario, Democrat Joe Hoeffel’s suburban Philadelphia 13th district would be the most dramatically altered. That plan has Philadelphia Reps. Chaka Fattah (2nd CD) and Bob Borski (3rd CD) cutting into most of the Montgomery County-based district (about 57 percent of it) while the western part of the 13th would be combined with parts of Berks and Chester Counties to create a new, GOP-leaning district. Insiders say that Philadelphia Democrat Bob Brady (1st CD), interested in protecting the three city seats, cut a deal with Republicans in the legislature to keep them intact. Hoeffel has publicly criticized this plan, arguing that breaking up Montgomery County would hurt the county’s clout in Washington. Hoeffel would have to decide if he wanted to run against Borski in a district that would likely have a majority city to county ratio. A best case scenario for Republicans would be to take the delegation from its current 10 Democrat to 11 Republican ratio to 7 Democrats to 12 Republicans in 2002. Whether or not this is possible is still up in the air.

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
RI      2D
       100%
      64.4%(D)/23.3%(R)

0

 R/R D The legislature. The gov. has veto power, takes 2/3 vote to overide.
Outlook: No change is expected here

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
SC      2D/4R
       33.3%/66.7%
      39.8/55.3%

0

 R/R D The legislature. The gov. has veto power, takes 2/3 vote to overide.
Outlook: Republicans control the line drawing here and there has been talk of putting heavily Republican Spartanburg County into Democratic Rep. John Spratt’s already marginal 5th district. But, one South Carolina Democrat warns that Democratic Gov. Jim Hodges will veto any plan that hurts Spratt, one of only two Democrats in the state delegation. The majority-black 6th District grew the slowest and will likely be significantly reshaped to pick up approximately 68,000 people. It is likely that the legislative session for reapportionment will take place from August 3rd to September 7th.

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
TN      4D/5R
       44.4%/55.6%
      44.2/53.5%

0

 D/D R The legislature. The gov. has veto power which can be overidden by a majority vote in the legislature.
Outlook: With Democrats in charge of the process (GOP Gov. Don Sundquist’s veto can be overridden by a simple majority) there is a lot of talk about Democrats beefing up their standing in the congressional delegation. The biggest target is the sprawling 4th CD held by GOP Rep. and likely gubernatorial candidate Van Hilleary. Democrats would also like to beef up Rep. Bart Gordon’s marginal 6th CD and Bob Clement’s Nashville-based 5th CD. But, one Republican warns that Democrats won’t be able to get their entire wish list as the 4th, 5th and 6th districts are all competing for the same chunk of Democratic leaning voters.
TX      17D/13R
       56.7%/43.3%
      46.8/49%

+2

 D/R R The legislature. The gov. has veto power.
Outlook: For a state as Republican as Texas, the fact that the delegation has 17 Democrats to 13 Republicans is a testament to the masterful gerrymander done by Democrats in 1991. This year, Republicans have control of the state Senate and Governor’s Mansion and are looking for payback. Democrats acknowledge that they will have problems here, but are hoping that the courts and their control of the state House will help insulate them from too much damage. Republicans talk publicly of taking at least six seats, and privately say that a two-seat pick-up is their worst case scenario. Privately, Democrats say that at least five of their incumbents could be weakened. But, with legislators currently embroiled in state legislative redistricting, the congressional lines are not likely to be drawn before the legislative session ends on May 28th.

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
UT      1D/2R
       33.3%/66.7%
      40.2%/56.2%

0

 R/R R The legislature. The gov. has veto power
Outlook: As the only Democrat in a state run by Republicans at every level, Democrat Jim Matheson’s Salt Lake City-based district is likely to be targeted by GOP map makers. GOP Reps. Chris Cannon (3rd CD) and Jim Hansen (1st CD) advocate giving the primarily urban 2nd district more rural stretches which would help to make this already marginal district trickier for Matheson in 2002. Matheson has said that he will sue if he believes the lines are unfairly drawn.

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
VA      3D/6R/1I
       (11 vacant-D)
       30%/60%
       44%/46.9%

0

 R/R R The legislature. The gov. has veto power.
Outlook: With Republicans in control of redistricting and continuing to make strides politically in the state, it is likely that Democrats probably lose a seat in 2002 elections thanks to GOP line drawing. The biggest target today is the 4th CD that was held by the late Democratic Rep. Norm Sisisky. Republicans are also looking to weaken Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher’s western 9th district by pushing it north into GOP 6th CD held by Rep. Bob Goodlatte. Still, GOP insiders admit that they aren’t likely to win the 9th CD until Boucher decides to step down.

 

State
  • Current US House comp.
  • Current split %
  • Aggregate Cong.vote
 Gain/Loss of Seats Control of state
House/Senate		 Governor Redistricting of Responsibility
WA      6D/3R
       (11 vacant-D)
       66.7%/33.3%
       52.3%/41.9%

0

 tied/D D A four-member Redistricting Commission. The gov. does not have veto power.
Outlook: With no loss or gain of seats, and a non-partisan commission in charge of drawing the lines, both sides agree that the Washington state delegation is not likely to suffer. Still, Democrats are hoping that GOP Rep. Jennifer Dunn’s 8th CD (which Gore carried by two points in 2000) will become even more marginal after redistricting. Republicans are hoping that line drawers push the city of Everett out of freshman Democratic Rep. Rick Larsen’s 2nd CD and thereby boost their chances of winning this seat. The fastest growing districts in the state were the 2nd (Larsen), the 3rd (Baird) and 8th (Dunn). The slowest growing was the Seattle-based 7th district represented by Democrat Jim McDermott, which needs to pick up about 65,000 people.
WV      2D/1R
       66.7%/33.3%
      72.6%/18.8%

0

 D/D D The legislature. The gov. has veto power.
Outlook: Both sides agree that freshman GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, only the third Republican to win the sprawling 2nd district in 76 years, will be the target for Democrats who control the line drawing in the state. Taking away the panhandle from the 2nd and putting it into Democrat Allan Mollohan’s 1st CD means Capito loses the part of the district responsible for pushing her over the top in her narrow 49-percent win in 2000. But, it also means that Mollohan’s district, which gave Bush 54 percent of the vote in 2000, could get more marginal.
WI      5D/4R
       55.6%/44.4%
      47.5%/52.4%

-1

 R/D R The legislature. The gov. has veto power.
Outlook: With the state slated to lose one seat, insiders on both sides agree that Milwaukee’s two districts, the slowest growing part of the state, will be combined into one. Although this would put a Democratic incumbent out of a job (current Milwaukee Rep. Tom Barrett is looking seriously at running for Governor) it could also have repercussions on incumbents. Incumbents who could feel the fallout include: GOP Reps. Paul Ryan (1st) and Jim Sensenbrenner (9th) and Democratic Reps. Tammy Baldwin (2nd), Ron Kind (3rd) and Jerry Kleczka (4th).