There are "lies, damned lies and statistics" goes the refrain, or do journalists simply not take enough math after grammar school?
Mike Bloomberg reportedly spent almost $70 million in the mayoral race and reporters are staggered by the figure. When the January filing is submitted, he will be comfortably over the $70 million mark. Bloomberg is quoted as saying, "it was the best $70 million I ever spent."
In reporting on campaign spending, journalists and "good government" types often get into bad statistical comparisons. It is a particularly pronounced problem in contested elections in New York City because, firstly, New York is the most expensive media market in the country. Secondly, for radio and television, half the audience the campaign is paying for lives in counties outside the city. Thirdly, less than half the adults reached by broadcast media in the city are registered voters. And finally, less than half of those registered actually vote.
Campaign managers do not budget by multiplying the number of voters by some ideal national cost per voter, allocating various funds to television, mail, staff and other items. A good manager starts by analyzing what job -- in a communications sense -- needs to get done, and then finding out what that actually costs in the real world in a particular geography.
A television spot in the New York market, the largest and most expensive in the country, can cost $3,000 dollars per rating point. The same spot in Savannah, market rank 100, might cost just $30 per rating point. Some sought-after programs that have large numbers of hard-to-reach voters, can cost more than $50,000 for a 30 second commercial; and special programs like World Series games can go as high as $110,000. Comparing candidate budgets in dollar terms or even cost per voter in different cities or states is absurd.
The final analysis is available from the Board of Elections. There were 1,480,914 votes cast for mayoral candidates. Mike Bloomberg received 50.29% of the vote and Mark Green 48.27%, with the balance going to minor party candidates, a win by less than 2% of those voting for mayor. With the natural advantages the Democrat had in enrollment, the extra heft he had from running for office so many times, Green's incumbent elected official advantage, and the fact that Team Green spent $14 million on their own campaign all argue for Bloomberg spending at very high levels if he wanted to be taken seriously by voters and get his message across.
But what is enough of a budget and when does spending become silly? Candidates run substantially smaller budgets than commercial advertisers. Often candidates in New York City are so mismatched that very small campaign budgets provide large margins. Indeed, a comparison to past campaigns is not revealing.
Around the country it is not uncommon for candidates in contested elections to be on the air (using radio and television advertising) for 13 weeks. The weekly television levels can range from "light" -- 500 gross rating points (GRPs) -- to as much as 2,000 GRPs in what some consider justifiably "heavy" weeks. At the end of a campaign, a candidate runs multiple messages and often needs to boost election turnout among hard-to-reach target audiences. By that standard, television alone in New York City can range from $500,000 to $2 million per week, and a 13-week schedule could cost $15 to $25 million without getting outrageous.
Direct mail is efficient and essential in a contested city election. Printing can cost less than postage in mayoral-size mailings here, together perhaps 30 cents per household. If you sent one mailing to every household containing a person who has actually voted in a recent city election, the cost could be more than $400,000. Candidates in contested elections commonly send 10 or more separate targeted mailings. For a citywide candidate here, that could easily exceed $5 million.
We have not even talked about phones, radio, posters, fundraising, field operations, press, scheduling, newspaper ads, artwork, production, polling, consultants and staff. When a campaign team runs a normal contested election in New York City, buying what they would anywhere else but at New York City prices, it is said to be outrageous.
When will reporters get used to campaign costs in New York? Will the Campaign Finance Law spending and donor limits be changed to reflect the real-world cost of contested political campaigns here? Can the Democrats raise enough money to defeat an incumbent governor next year? More later.