Wednesday, 09 March 2016

3/8/2016 - New SuperPac – "The Committee to Draft Paul Ryan" was launched this week by former Ambassador Earle Mack. He plans to spend as much as $1 million to convince Speaker Ryan to run for the Republican presidential nomination (NY Times)

Wednesday, 24 February 2016

Delegate Count  (2/24/2016)

Republicans: –  Trump – 81; Cruz – 1 7; Rubio – 17: Still available:– 2341 delegates
Democrats: – Clinton – 502 (451 are Superdelegates); Sanders – 70 (19 are Superdelegates) Still available: 4193 delegates.

Source:Bloomberg Politics

Thursday, 28 January 2016

1/28/2016- By the Numbers - Trump and Cruz by March - an analysis by Dick Morris in "The Hill".  A Republican presidential candidate needs 1237 delegates to win in July.  Almost 700 delegates will be chosen on March 1, 363 (or 52%) will be in states that require a 15 or 20% threshold to share in the proportional allocation. Of the 356 delegates chosen March 5,6,8,12, 250 (60%) will need the 15 or 20% threshold.  By March 15th, 578 delegates (47% of those needed for the nomination) will have been selected by threshold states.  Before March 15th, 478 delegates will be selected from non-threshold states.  On March 15th, a third candidate might win some of the big winner-take-all states (Florida with 99 delegates, Ohio with 66 delegates) but will they have banked enough of the threshold states to make a difference. Only 2 candidates will reach the 15 or 20% threshold in most states


Monday, 11 January 2016

OH - Open CD 8 – the Boehner Seat.  Special election March 8th . Safe Republican.  At least 15 candidates running including: St. Rep Matthew Ashworth (R), St. Rep. Tim Derickson (R), St. Sen. Bill Beagle (R), Donald Feeere (R), Eric Haemmerle (R), Scott George (R), Warren Davidson (R), Jim Spurling (R), Kevin White (R), George Wooley (R), J.D. WInteregg (R).

Thursday, 07 January 2016

GA - Open Seat – Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (CD 3, R) is not seeking re-election.  He has served the suburban Atlanta to suburba Columbus district since 2007.  This is a safe Republican seat but the Primary contest will be hard fought.