Sunday, 29 May 2016

FL news - Nine Florida House members and one senator are retiring this year, driven in part by a dramatic redistricting plan, term limits on chairmanships and, in the case of Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, a bid for the White House. That’s a third of the state’s delegation, the highest turnover rate among large states in 2016. (Roll Call). 
This could affect the voting in November. FL is a pivotal presidential state.


Monday, 23 May 2016

Presidential Ratings – 270 electoral votes to win
Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report – Dems – Projected 332 votes; Repubs – 191votes. 
State ratings: Pure Toss-up (15); Tilt Dem (83); Lean Dem (32); Dem Favored (38); Safe Dem (179);
Repubs Favored (48); Safe Repubs (143); 
Pure Toss-up State: NC; Toss Up/Tilt Democratic States: CO, FL, NH, OH, WI, VA.

Wednesday, 09 March 2016

3/8/2016 - New SuperPac – "The Committee to Draft Paul Ryan" was launched this week by former Ambassador Earle Mack. He plans to spend as much as $1 million to convince Speaker Ryan to run for the Republican presidential nomination (NY Times)

Wednesday, 24 February 2016

Delegate Count  (2/24/2016)

Republicans: –  Trump – 81; Cruz – 1 7; Rubio – 17: Still available:– 2341 delegates
Democrats: – Clinton – 502 (451 are Superdelegates); Sanders – 70 (19 are Superdelegates) Still available: 4193 delegates.

Source:Bloomberg Politics

Thursday, 28 January 2016

1/28/2016- By the Numbers - Trump and Cruz by March - an analysis by Dick Morris in "The Hill".  A Republican presidential candidate needs 1237 delegates to win in July.  Almost 700 delegates will be chosen on March 1, 363 (or 52%) will be in states that require a 15 or 20% threshold to share in the proportional allocation. Of the 356 delegates chosen March 5,6,8,12, 250 (60%) will need the 15 or 20% threshold.  By March 15th, 578 delegates (47% of those needed for the nomination) will have been selected by threshold states.  Before March 15th, 478 delegates will be selected from non-threshold states.  On March 15th, a third candidate might win some of the big winner-take-all states (Florida with 99 delegates, Ohio with 66 delegates) but will they have banked enough of the threshold states to make a difference. Only 2 candidates will reach the 15 or 20% threshold in most states